New nuclear power in Britain: a politically attractive investment priority for the new Labour government.
29/10/2024

New nuclear power in Britain: a politically attractive investment priority for the new Labour government.

Stonehaven

 

New research of the Labour Party’s new voter coalition has found that target voters – the so-called ‘Hero Voters’ – support the expansion of new nuclear power in Britain as part of the country’s transition to net zero (find out more about Labour’s Hero Voters here).

Here’s our top take aways from the new research on ‘Hero Voters’:

1. Almost two thirds (62%) agree that ‘the UK’s ability to build new nuclear power stations is a key test of the country’s capacity to complete major infrastructure projects’.

2. Over two thirds (67%) believe that the nuclear industry ‘has been a critical part of our national energy supply in the past’ with a clear majority (58%) believing that the nuclear industry will be a critical part of our infrastructure in the future;

3. Long timeframes to deliver new nuclear power stations do not significantly affect public support for immediate policy decision making. Almost two thirds (63%) agree (with only 10% disagreeing) with the statement ‘the government should commit to building new nuclear power stations now, even if they won't be operational for another 5 years’.

4. Almost two-thirds (64%) believe that Labour’s plan for economic growth cannot be achieved without an expansion of clean energy.

5. Almost three quarters (71%) believe increasing nuclear power as a part of the UK’s clean energy generation will ‘make us less reliant on other countries’, an underlying concern amongst this voter group.

6. Labour’s ‘Hero Voters’ support for nuclear contrasts with mixed views on other decarbonisation measures, implying a more complex political pathway for these components of a low economy:

- Just over a quarter (26%), a net negative of -8, support a ban on gas boilers. This points to a more phased approach to heat decarbonisation being politically optimal.

- When asked if they support a ‘reduction in flying’, under a third (33%) say they agree. Near term aviation decarbonisation will need to emphasise alternative fuels and electrification to maintain support.

- When asked if they support a reduction in the consumption in meat and dairy, 34% agree. Further expansion of the meat-free market and greater customer familiarity will be essential to prompt reductions in demand for meat.

- By contrast, a majority (51%) support the building of new nuclear power as means to bring down emissions.

Voters are broadly supportive of the transition, when solutions are at the system level. When changes are at the individual level, the value proposition for change (beyond climate) is not always apparent. Better alignment to wider priorities of voters are needed to accelerate transition in this space.

‘Hero Voters’ – coined by Labour strategists before the election – are voters who Labour targeted at the last election and who returned to Labour in July and remain the focus of Labour’s political strategy.

The research comes amidst warnings that decades of policy inertia on nuclear power generation means that, by 2029, the U.K. could be nuclear-free for the first time in over 70 years.

Data scientists at Stonehaven have used survey data collected this month and electoral modelling to understand the attitudes of these voters on the ability of the government to make Britain a ‘clean energy superpower’.

Stonehaven’s data scientists produced the most accurate MRP modelling ahead of the General Election.

There is clear support for partnerships with allies who can help Britain accelerate the expansion of clean nuclear energy. Voters across the board are most favourable about partnering with Canada, the US and France, with public-private financing commanding the most support for the financing of new nuclear power.

Luke Betham, Head of Data Science at Stonehaven, commenting on the research, said:

“There are proxies on which this government will be judged by this new voter coalition – with huge doubts that government, on either side of the political divide, can deliver the infrastructure voters believe is needed in Britain.

“While the jury is very much still out on the government’s ability to deliver, Labour’s hero voters are looking for some totemic issues on which to assess the government’s capacity to deliver the change it said is coming – and new nuclear energy is one of them.

“Our research explores salient issues to understand shifts over time, and to identify politically viable pathways to policy change. We learn that while new nuclear power - which is ready to go - commands support, a number of other salient policy issues – from meat consumption, to flights and boilers, are more politically complicated.”

You can access the data tables here.

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