Almost two million voters backed the Conservatives in 2019 but didn't in 2024.
04/10/2024

Almost two million voters backed the Conservatives in 2019 but didn't in 2024.

Kirsty Buchanan

This week, as four Conservative leadership contenders set out their stalls at the party conference in Birmingham, Stonehaven’s data and insights team has been diving into what makes up this centre-right coalition of lost voters.

This potential pool amounts to 42% of voters who have centre-right values: the ‘Easy Wins’, the ‘Moderates’ and ‘Reform-Lite’.

The Easy Wins make up 10% of the potential pool and, as their name suggests, would be won over by a decent show of unity, competency, and some traditional Tory thinking.

Mainly in their 40’s and 50’s, they live in the rural south and Yorkshire and Humberside, are financially secure and comfortable with multicultural Britain but nervous about the pace of change.

‘Reform Lite’ voters are older, financially secure yet more pessimistic about Britain’s future and their own prospects. They are sceptical of climate action and concerned about the pace of immigration.  They make up 19% of the pool.

The Moderates, make up the remaining 13%. University educated and financially secure, this group are more optimistic about the country’s future, supportive of climate policies and want to see more rights for workers but are concerned about Labour overreach.

Outside of the basic tenets of Conservative thinking, (small state, lower taxes), and the basic tenets of good politics, (unity and competency), what flagship policies would make all three groups more likely to vote for the party again? And what would help unite the party and what could prove too divisive?

We tested four key policy options: raising defence spending, abolishing the BBC licence fee, abolishing Inheritance Tax and pulling Britain out of the European Court of Human Rights.

Abolishing Inheritance Tax had the greatest level of alignment between the groups: with just nine percentage points the 57% of Reform-Lite and Easy Wins groups who said it would make them more likely to vote Conservative. and the 46% of Moderates who said the same.

Some 71% of the Reform-Lite group were drawn to the BBC licence fee ending, together with 63% of the Easy Wins and 54% of the Moderates.  However, there was less alignment, with 17 percentage points between Reform-Lite and Moderate support.

Increasing defence spending was popular with 65% of Reform-Lite, 58% of Easy Wins and 49% of the Moderates.  Just 16 percentage points separating the groups overall.

The greatest level of disparity emerges around the critical leadership issue of pulling Britain out of the ECHR.

While hugely popular with Reform-Lite voters, (70% thought it would make them more likely to vote Conservative) just 45% of Easy Wins felt the same and less than a third of Moderates, 28%.  That amounts to a whopping 42 percentage point difference.

Rather than serving to attract and unite centre-right voters, this suggests any new leader tacking too far to the right may find the risks outweigh the rewards.

 

For data tables, please see here.

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