Insights
Moving Hearts and Minds - Delivering Infrastructure for the Age of Populism
There are many questions about the rise of populism around the world. But at Stonehaven we have found something that helps find answers, through one feature that unites all four seats that swung to Reform at the last election (with Ashfield having already been Reform). Drawing on experience from the...
Michael Dnes
A New Energy and Industrial Revolution: Making GB Energy a Success
A new report shows the steps government should take to secure support for GB Energy.
A new paper from Stonehaven, commissioned by Project Tempo, details how the UK Government can secure the future of Great British Energy (GBE) by offering cut-price power and key materials for the UK’s clean energy...
Adam Bell
Uneven Road Ahead - Making Road Tax Fair Again
Motoring tax has a reputation as too dangerous to touch. Even at the Budget, the Chancellor deferred a planned 7p fuel duty rise at a cost of £3.0 billion, rather than deal with the impact on family budgets.
But this may not prevent an explosion. Even with fuel duty...
Michael Dnes
New nuclear power in Britain: a politically attractive investment priority for the new Labour government.
New research of the Labour Party’s new voter coalition has found that target voters – the so-called ‘Hero Voters’ – support the expansion of new nuclear power in Britain as part of the country’s transition to net zero (find out more about Labour’s Hero Voters here).
Here’s our...
Stonehaven
Labour, the nanny state and the political mandate to intervene
Disposable vapes are to be banned. Smokers will not be able to light up outside the hospital door. And, at some point in the parliament, we can expect new laws prohibiting the next generation from being able to legally buy cigarettes.
But is there a mandate for the government to...
Adam McNicholas
Ofgem - Innovation in the Energy Retail Market
On October 2nd, Ofgem opened a consultation on innovation in the energy retail market, specifically looking at ways to reform the licencing regime to facilitate market entry. This comes after the 2021 energy crisis brutally exposed the structural failure of the market and the need for fundamental changes. Indeed, as...
Apolline Bousquet
Labour over the Pennines?
Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves have talked about unlocking long-delayed infrastructure. Soon, they will have a chance to prove it, as they are asked to sign off the last piece of Clement Attlee’s roads programme.
In 1946, the Minister of Transport published the country’s first programme for a network of...
Michael Dnes
Morgan McSweeney, a council estate in Barking and the fight against populism.
With the appointment of his new Chief of Staff, the Prime Minister put the fight against populism at the top of the political agenda.
He is a man of few words. So when he speaks, people listen. The appointment of Morgan McSweeney as the Prime Minister’s new Chief of Staff...
Adam McNicholas
What are Private Members’ Bills and do they work?
This week, Kim Leadbeater MP announced her intention to introduce a new Bill which would provide terminally ill, eligible adults a choice to shorten their dying at the end of their life and support their families thereafter. This comes just months after a similar bill was introduced into the...
Samuel Chivers
Almost two million voters backed the Conservatives in 2019 but didn't in 2024.
This week, as four Conservative leadership contenders set out their stalls at the party conference in Birmingham, Stonehaven’s data and insights team has been diving into what makes up this centre-right coalition of lost voters.
This potential pool amounts to 42% of voters who have centre-right values: the ‘Easy Wins’,...
Kirsty Buchanan
If you have ‘shovel-ready projects’, waste no time in putting them forward. This government is preparing to build, build, build.
“Britain can’t build anything anymore” - we hear this kind of thing in focus groups all the time.
Despite huge and understandable scepticism from Labour’s Hero Voters (Keir Cozens has written on why they matter here) about the...
Adam McNicholas
On the Eve of Independence Day
Three key priorities for the newly independent NESO
Today marks a seismic shift in the structure of the UK’s energy sector, as the functions of running the power system and planning both gas and power are removed from the private sector and housed in a publicly owned body. This is...
Adam Bell
Think about Liverpool as the departure lounge, with the new government preparing for take off
Adam McNicholas, Senior Advisor at Stonehaven
Sandwiched between the general election and a series of strategic milestones in the early parliament – notably the International Investment Summit, the Autumn Budget and the forthcoming Industrial Strategy; this was always going to be...
Adam McNicholas
New research: Labour’s new voter coalition ‘sceptical of big business’ and want more rights at work.
By Keir Cozens, Managing Consultant at Stonehaven and former Parliamentary Labour Party Secretary and Director of Political Services at the Labour Party.
“It would be wrong for business leaders to assume that Labour’s workers’ rights agenda is simply a pitch to the core voter base of the party. As...
Keir Cozens
Healing a fragmented state: How Labour’s plan for 2030 power decarbonisation can be delivered
A new report calls on the Government to introduce a National Energy Plan to tackle infrastructure planning delays, if it is to achieve its aim of delivering decarbonised power by 2030.
A new study by strategic consultancy Stonehaven, on behalf of Project Tempo, warns that without “radical action to...
Adam Bell
A deep dive into Stonehaven's 2024 UK General Election MRP and what it tells us about voters
Stonehaven’s 2024 UK election MRP accurately predicted the outcome of the election, only 38 seats out from the overall seat totals, making it the closest model in the UK.
How the model performed in more detail
Our MRP model demonstrated remarkable accuracy. When examining the results of...
Luke Betham
Politics, policy and people: Stonehaven's final pre-election MRP projection
Ahead of Thursday's UK General Election, Stonehaven has today released its final MRP (Multi-level regression with post-stratification) projection with Labour set to claim a resounding win with 420 seats according to the modelling. You can view a seat-by-seat breakdown of the model below using our interactive data tool.
Other key...
Stonehaven
Politics Home: "Turquoise Tories" could sound the death knell for the Conservatives in marginal seats
The following article has been published by Politics Home and covers advanced voter research conducted by Stonehaven ahead of the 2024 General Election has been covered by Politics Home.
Around one in six 2019 Conservative voters who want to see action taken on the climate said they will switch parties...
Chris Loy
New economic analysis finds big fiscal savings from removing barriers to young welfare claimants working.
A new study by Stonehaven economists has found that relatively modest investment in Universal Credit claimants in supported housing could offer the taxpayer a return within a 5-year Parliament.
BREAKING BARRIERS TO WORK
An estimated 189,500 working age people live in supported housing across the UK. Supported housing helps these...
Martin Kelly
New report calls for consumer led decisions on local clean energy investment
A new report calls for widespread reform of energy regulation to speed up local distribution of clean energy to homes and businesses across the UK.
A new study by strategic sustainability consultancy Stonehaven warns new energy networks need to grow and adapt “further and faster than ever before” to reach...
Adam Bell
Turned off by green branding, turned on by green brands
Emily Rule
Green Tariffs: Are CBAMs the new Corn Laws?
In December, the Government announced that a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be implemented on imports of certain goods from 2027. Reaction was positive, with almost three-quarters of UK manufacturers supporting a UK CBAM, noting that it can create a level playing field. But border tariffs have a long...
Leila Roberts
Re-Thinking Retail: Protecting Consumers
Today we've released a follow-up report on the retail energy market, Re-Thinking Retail: Protecting Consumers.
Adam Bell
The next UK election: More 2017 than 1997?
Stonehaven’s latest MRP reveals that Labour are set for a 1997-style landslide majority at the next UK general.
But, the data warns against complacency from Labour– a critical 6% of voters who are Tory defectors have the potential to undermine the Party’s ambitions as they are yet to fully convince...
Stonehaven
What's the recipe for successful cultured meat? Cultivating consumer confidence
The environmental challenge of the food system is one of the trickiest and most politically contentious challenges of our time. One potential solution lies in cultured meat grown in laboratories. As the UK moves towards permitting these meats and adapting regulation, sustainability specialist Bella Nourse and policy consultant Tobias Burke...
Stonehaven
Nothing to hide here. Why we work on difficult sectors
In this age of (rightful) sustainability scrutiny of all corporate sectors, including consultancy, it occasionally crosses my mind that our firm, which married Robertsbridge with Stonehaven, might one day find itself on the end of one of those ‘gotcha’ moments in which advisory firms are challenged, in public, on the client...
Brendan May
Will the extreme weather of this summer change the future of travel?
Our expert research team has taken a look back at the extreme weather events of this summer and explored whether they may affect people’s future travel preferences. Senior Consultant Angus Boobbyer takes a deep dive into the results, suggesting businesses may need to reassess their long term strategies in light...
Angus Boobbyer
Reinventing Retail Energy: Making the energy retail market fit for the next generation
Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s vision for privatisation was to ensure: “the state’s power is reduced, and the power of the people enhanced”. While some market-based reforms from her premiership have given customers greater flexibility, control, and choice, it is hard to see how privatisation of retail energy has resulted...
Stonehaven
Labour set for big majority: see the result of every seat
Stonehaven’s latest MRP model provides our first detailed forecast of how tactical voting will shape the next election. View the interactive data tool below.
The headline result is clear: our model shows that Labour would secure 372 seats – a stable majority of 90 – were the election held today....
Stonehaven
No appetite for change? A look at food and obesity policy
Our expert research team has taken a look at the key issues on food and obesity policy and what UK people really think about them. Managing Consultant, and research specialist, Tom Welborn explains the results and why politicians shouldn't fear interventionism on food and obesity policy.
This month, children returning...
Tom Welborn
Engineering Skills Gap: Evolving the industry to inspire the new modern workforce
Our latest deep data dive shows that a fifth of the engineering workforce is set to retire in the next five years, and current recruitment drives are failing to plug the gap. On today’s trends, the sector is heading for a shortfall of one million engineers by 2030 which runs...
Stonehaven
Taking the right lessons from the Uxbridge by-election and ULEZ
Our Managing Partner for Insights and Strategy Pandora Lefroy takes a look at the lessons from the recent Uxbridge byelection.
When you understand that mandating individual change is driving opposition to ULEZ, you can begin to understand how to make the case for change.
I study voters for a living....
Pandora Lefroy
Politicians and business leaders must wake up to the end of cheap money, as ‘hamster wheel households’ start to feel the pain.
The following opinion piece was first published via CapX. Data tables from our research are available for download at the bottom of this page.
There are two big public policy challenges facing home ownership in the UK. The first, getting onto the housing ladder, if you don’t have a helping...
Stonehaven
Why Britain needs more pylons, and how to get them built.
Stonehaven’s Director of Policy, Adam Bell, spoke to the BBC in response to the Government’s announcement today on the insights to unlock consensus for the construction of more pylons to make energy cheaper for consumers. If you missed the interview, you can read his blog below.
The UK’s energy is...
Adam Bell
A Route to Re-Election?
The Conservatives are underpriced, and a Labour victory at the next election is not set in stone, despite what many had seen in recent years and an insurmountable lead in the polls. According to Stonehaven's latest polling and analysis, the Government has turned a corner on two years of decline,...
Stonehaven
The Return of Nuclear
The last couple of years have seen a sea change in public attitudes towards new nuclear across the UK. Rising energy bills and Putin’s war in Ukraine have put a laser-like focus on the UK’s energy security and revealed more starkly than ever the importance of investing in British energy...
Stonehaven
labour-back-in-business
Carwyn Jones
Beyond Sticking Plasters: Cost of living and the energy crisis
Stonehaven
The Plant-Based Revolution: Fad or Fixture?
Why...
Stonehaven
The changing global trade landscape
Paul Madden CMG, one of our Senior Advisors, shares the six challenges business face when navigating the growing trend of deglobalisation and the opportunities it offers.
If you’re thinking the global trade scene is suddenly looking a lot more complicated, you’re not alone. For most of my career, trade was...
Paul Madden CMG
The science of politics, climate, and the impact on aviation
It has been almost 2 years since the aviation industry was grounded. The path back will be shaped by customer concerns over open borders, appetite to return to mass travel, and growing concern over the climate impacts of aviation. A new report published by Stonehaven and Robertsbridge has found that of these factors, climate concerns are over 10x more powerful...
Stonehaven