Politics, policy and people: Stonehaven's final pre-election MRP projection

Politics, policy and people: Stonehaven's final pre-election MRP projection


Ahead of Thursday's UK General Election, Stonehaven has today released its final MRP (Multi-level regression with post-stratification) projection with Labour set to claim a resounding win with 420 seats according to the modelling. You can view a seat-by-seat breakdown of the model below using our interactive data tool.

Other key findings from the results

- Labour's 420 seats would give it a majority of 190 - bigger than 1997's hallmark victory under Tony Blair

- The Conservative Party look set to claim 115 seats with a modest gain of two seats Reform

- In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) are set to retain 22 seats, with Labour (30 seats) the main beneficiary 

Our interactive MRP results

Explore the results from our MRP seat-by-seat using the data tool below. This is best viewed on desktop.

How Stonehaven's MRP differs?

Most other MRP models typically provide mean projections as the key output, providing a single projection.

At Stonehaven we find it far more informative to consider the range of likely outcomes. This is particularly important in this election, where many seats can be decided by a small number of votes which are impacted by a range of factors (including rain!).

To determine these ranges, we run hundreds of election simulations through our model. Each simulation uses data within the likely ranges to predict potential election outcomes.

All scenarios project a Labour victory, but with varying degrees of majority. The numbers presented in the data tool below represent those that are most probable according to the model.

Please get in contact if you'd like to find out more about the results or how Stonehaven's MRP model can be used for issues based campaigns.

For the full crosstabs data tables, please click here. 

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