Moving Hearts and Minds - Delivering Infrastructure for the Age of Populism

There are many questions about the rise of populism around the world. But at Stonehaven we have found something that helps find answers, through one feature that unites all four seats that swung to Reform at the last election (with Ashfield having already been Reform). Drawing on experience from the transport sector and from the 2024 Labour election campaign, we found that all four constituencies had a ‘missing road’, and that a lack of transport was a key issue to local people.

This isn’t an argument that road building is the way to solve the rise of populism; but it does argue that the local communities that are most open to populist arguments have often been pushing for the answers to their problems for a long time, and haven’t been heard. Transport – and especially roads – happen to be a place where many different problems come together, whether it’s business worries, access to better jobs or the ability to get to public services.

We have used some of Stonehaven’s in-house techniques, especially our MRP model (which managed to get the most accurate modelling of the 2024 general election) to ask where this trend might strike next. The report shows key areas where we see it coinciding with populism’s fastest rise. That includes Reform’s top 2025 target, where three cabinet ministers have seats at risk.

We also suggest the shovel-ready projects that government can turn to in its 2025 10 year Infrastructure Strategy. This plan looks set to be one of the most impactful decisions the government will make, and which projects are in and out is likely to decide how much this issue affects results at the next General Election.

Read our full paper below.