Give them time: Stonehaven's MRP, 6 months on

In many of our focus groups since the 2024 election, when asked how Labour was doing, we have seen responses like this one: “I don't think Labour has done very well since they came in… but they do have time to improve things.” Our focus group respondents seem to have some patience, but our polls are telling a different story. We are now 6 months in, and the polls have been looking increasingly stark. We have seen Labour support drop 12 percentage points since our June pre-election polling. And these moves from our latest poll look relatively tame compared to some others that have been published in the last few months.

Now of course, Labour are only 10% of the way through their term – there is not going to be an election tomorrow. However, our team has been busy updating our MRP model to take in all the data from the 2024 election, along with the 17k new respondents we have polled in the months since the election. Our model is now able to predict more granularly down to ward level, so its worth sharing what our latest model is saying would happen if there were an election tomorrow. Here it is: 

Our latest MRP model paints a dramatic picture of Labour’s waning support. If there were an election tomorrow, Labour would lose its majority, dropping from 411 seats to 278. Reform UK would surge from 5 seats to 120, while the Conservatives would make modest gains, rising to 157 seats. For the first time, a combined Conservative-Reform bloc could realistically rival Labour’s seat total, leaving the government’s position far weaker than many expected. Labour and the Liberal Democrats together would have exactly 325 seats between them. 

While much of the post-election narrative has focused on the threat Reform poses to the Conservatives, our findings reveal that most of the increases in Reform support have come from 2024 Labour voters, not the Tories. Specifically, Labour’s hero voters, who were a key battleground group Labour focused on during the election. See here for our analysis on the hero voters. Of the seats that are more likely to vote Reform now – almost 80% of them are currently Labour seats.

What’s driving this shift? Immigration is a huge dividing line between Labour’s core voters and those turning to Reform UK. Labour’s loyal voters remain focused on health and the NHS, with only 19% listing immigration as a priority. In contrast, over half of Labour to Reform UK switchers consider immigration and border control to be a paramount issue. These voters aren’t entirely lost to Labour—they still align with Labour loyalists on concerns like the NHS and the cost of living—but immigration clearly dominates their decision-making. 

Reform UK’s rise is more than just a warning sign for Labour. We have Reform with a greater than 10% chance of winning in 244 seats. Without a strategy to address this, the shallow coalition that carried Labour to power last year could quickly unravel. 

This research shows the growing volatility of the electorate. Labour’s record-breaking victory in 2024 was built on voters who were persuaded to give the party a chance after years of dissatisfaction with the Conservatives. Now, those same voters are looking for delivery on issues like immigration, and they aren’t afraid to shift their support again if they feel Labour isn’t listening.  

MRP isn’t just about predicting elections—it’s about building a deeper understanding of the forces shaping voter behaviour in specific areas. By identifying regional priorities, MRP helps highlight where political or corporate strategies might resonate—or risk falling flat. This level of insight is key to building trust with communities across the UK by addressing the issues that matter most to them, turning broad messages into meaningful local action. We’ve written more about this approach here, with Nuclear power as an example. Please reach out to our Insights and Data team if you want a deeper understanding of how the landscape is changing and how it might affect you.  

For data tables, please see here.